Global Weekly Catalyst No. 322

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 322

• General Thoughts: Energy shocks are steepening global petrochemical cost curves, tightening supply balances, and boosting sentiment toward advantaged production systems after prolonged oversupply concerns.
• Feedstocks & Energy: Surging oil and naphtha costs outside North America are steepening global petrochemical cost curves, reinforcing the structural competitiveness of US natural gas/NGL-based petrochemical production systems.
• Olefins: Hormuz feedstock disruptions and rising uncertainty around Chinese cracker expansions are shifting olefins sentiment, challenging oversupply assumptions, and materially reducing downside risk to pricing and returns.
• Other Base Chemicals: Asia’s outsized benzene and methanol price surge signals intermediate availability tightening faster than expected, raising downstream cost pressure and supporting firmer global derivative pricing.
• Agriculture: Global natural gas price divergence and concerns about Middle East supply are keeping ammonia markets tight, sustaining North American margin advantages and raising the probability that fertilizer prices stay firm in 2026.
• Refining & Biofuels: Expanding crude oil refinery cracks and recovering ethanol margins signal a strengthening global fuel complex, suggesting refined products continue to anchor energy profitability even as crude volatility persists.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Global chemical prices surge higher as steepening cost curves reward low-cost producers.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Estimates, March 2026