Sweet Disposition: Better Markets Are Exposing Worse Business Models

Companies Mentioned: Neste, Diamond Green Diesel, Phillips 66, Keppel, Aster, Energis8, Orica, Yara, NextEra, Constellation, Calpine, CyrusOne, Freeport, Teck, Southern Copper, Equinor, GE Vernova, Prolec, Tesla, EQT, Competitive Power Ventures
Commodities Mentioned: Diesel, SAF, Hydrogen, Ethanol, Ammonia, Natural Gas, Methanol, Fertilizer, Ammonium Nitrate, Copper, Germanium, Gallium, Antimony, LNG, Carbon, Corn, Corn Oil, Gasoline, Jet Fuel, Coal

1st Topic of the Week: The renewable fuel market is shifting from margin expansion to margin defense as feedstocks catch up, making flexible assets and customer control the decisive earnings advantages.
2nd Topic of the Week: Elevated ammonia prices improve low-carbon economics, but expensive power still confines electrolysis investment to advantaged sites with secure industrial demand and policy support.
Additionally, supportive markets are revealing where strong prices improve cash flow and where they merely postpone difficult capital decisions across the transition to low-carbon products globally.

Exhibit 1: Renewable Diesel Margins Remain Attractive as Feedstock Inflation Reclaims Part of 2Q26 Windfall.