Global Weekly Catalyst No. 351

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 351

• General Thoughts: Returning supply can cut sellers’ prices before buyers secure cheaper deliveries, so stronger trade may reflect supply rerouting rather than demand growth or margin recovery.
• Feedstocks & Energy: Europe’s smaller LPG discount limits crackers’ feedstock savings, leaving margins exposed if restored Middle East deliveries weaken chemical prices before winter energy purchases become less costly.
• Olefins: Resin buyers can restock from sellers’ inventories in 4Q26, leaving olefin maintenance premiums vulnerable as returning crackers seek customers before derivative sales justify sustained output increases.
• Other Base Chemicals: Methanol faces recovering Chinese supply; European chlor-alkali carries electricity-driven curtailment risk; benzene demand depends on derivative output, not simply higher derivative prices.
• Agriculture: China’s export quotas strengthen India’s negotiating position, but a cheaper prilled award could pressure granular sellers’ asking prices without easing exposure to Middle East supply disruptions.
• Refining & Biofuels: China’s cargo cancellations favor refiners with available fuel; ethanol producers gain from cheaper corn, but returning supply could erode profits unless sales keep pace.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Widening Inland Ammonia Premiums Limit Buyers’ Benefit From Lower Import Prices.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Estimates, October 2026