Harvest Moon – Material Producers Seek 2H Price Hikes, Buyers Expect Cost Relief – Both Can’t Be Right

Daily Chemical Reaction

Harvest Moon – Material Producers Seek 2H Price Hikes, Buyers Expect Cost Relief – Both Can’t Be Right

Key Points:

• The C-MACC Clean Energy Minerals Monthly Price Index was unchanged MoM in January, and we anticipate continued support in 1H23, though some materials will stay stronger than others.
• Specialty chemical and downstream chemical product producers expect destocking to come to an end in 1H23 and lower raw materials in 2H23 – demand needs to hold up for them to benefit.
• NW European and Asia natural gas has surged relative to US natural gas prices since mid-4Q22, though natural gas prices are lower in absolute terms in these regions, and we flag the EIA STEO.
• We discuss the legal action being taken against Shell directors and the ongoing conflicts facing companies as clean activist agendas broadly differ from those of return-focused shareholders.
• We highlight the weakness in North American chemical rail traffic YTD compared to 2022, and we also discuss Unilever’s views that further price hikes are needed for a full-margin recovery.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams