Daily Chemical Reactions

The Matrix: Global Agriculture Best Positioned, Crude Oil Price Shifts To Sway Commodity & Specialty Margins
October 11, 2023
Commodities Mentioned:
Plastics (PVC, PP, PE, PU, PC, PET, etc.), Clean Energy Minerals, Carbon Dioxide, Hydrogen, Natural Gas/NGLs, Crude/Naphtha
Companies Mentioned:
BASF, Nutrien, CF Industries, Corteva, Dow, Westlake, Air LIquide, Birla Carbon, Asahi Kasei, Solvay, Denka, Shell, DuPont, ExxonMobil, Pioneer Natural Resources, Lotte Chemical, Hy2gen, Lithium Americas, Nornickel, Enercon, Revalyu Resources, UPM, Brenntag, Thyssenkrupp Uhde, Borouge, BP, Suniva, Aker Carbon Capture, VinFast, Chevron, Tellurian, BYD, AmSpec, Piedmont Lithium, Origin Materials, Hyliion Holdings, Energy Transfer, SLB

Daily Chemical Reaction

The Matrix: Global Agriculture Best Positioned, Crude Oil Price Shifts To Sway Commodity & Specialty Margins

Key Points:

  • US wholesale prices rose in September due to higher energy and food costs, benefiting North American agricultural and commodity chemical producers relative to peers in Asia and Europe.
  • Chemical market values fell from mid-1H23 highs into 3Q, on average, relative to the total goods PPI, but both rose in September – a negative trend for non-integrated chemical margins.
  • We maintain a positive view of North American agricultural chemical and fertilizer producers, as most benefit from a global cost advantage and a healthy end-market demand backdrop.
  • We highlight Exxon-Pioneer merger news and discuss the tight linkage of oil price movements to global commodity chemical prices in an oversupplied market focused on marginal production.
  • Chinese wind development costs have plummeted relative to the West, and rising Western project costs and uncertainties linked to the energy transition are a concern that is growing.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams


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