Daily Chemical Reactions

Here Comes Santa Claus! But, His Fuel Is More Expensive, His Gifts More Costly, and All Of It Is Far From Emissions Free!
December 22, 2023
Commodities Mentioned:
Plastics (PVC, PP, PE, PU, PC, PET, etc.), Clean Energy Minerals, Carbon Dioxide, Hydrogen, Natural Gas/NGLs, Crude/Naphtha
Companies Mentioned:
Nova Chemicals, Dow, LyondellBasell, ExxonMobil, Methanex, Westlake, OCI, Mitsui Chemicals, BASF, Celanese, Ineos, Phillips 66, OMV, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, TotalEnergies, Indorama Ventures, Idemitsu, Altus Power, Ingevity, Venture Global, BP, Shell, Longbow, NuScale, Sulzer, LG Chem, Eni, Equinor, Braskem Idesa, Capstone Copper, Worthington Steel, Rare Element Resources, Advanced Hydrocarbon Fuels Limited, Bloom Energy, SK Ecoplant, Advent Technologies, Kolibri Global Energy, Apogee Enterprises

Daily Chemical Reaction

Here Comes Santa Claus! But, His Fuel Is More Expensive, His Gifts More Costly, and All Of It Is Far From Emissions Free!

Key Points

  • Recent crude oil and Ex-US naphtha price strength suggest downstream refined product and chemical price support that benefits North American producers relative to Europe and Asia.
  • North American ethylene producers are among the most significant 4Q23 beneficiaries of global feedstock movements, as USGC ethane is ~34% lower while Ex-US naphtha is down 6%.
  • Asia and Europe natural gas prices have fallen ~17% in 4Q23 compared to a ~3% decline in the US, which suggests a flatter global cost curve for some, such as methanol and ammonia.
  • Global freight logistic issues caused by Red Sea and Panama Canal disruptions persist, posing challenges for some product flows, but are unlikely to tighten global chemical markets notably.
  • We discuss mounting news targeting renewable fuel market trends and emerging technology, recent UK and EU carbon price movements, and high expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams


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