Thinking Global, Drinking Local – NPE Takeaways – US Drunk On Upstream Feedstock, China On Chemical Supply, Europe In Rehab

Companies Mentioned: Aramco, ExxonMobil, Chevron, ADNOC, Braskem, OMV, Borealis, Covestro, Mubadala, Avient, Huntsman, BASF, Versalis, BP, Origin Materials, Danimer Scientific, TotalEnergies, SINOPEC
Commodities Mentioned: Benzene, Crude Oil, MDI-urethanes, Polyethylene, Natural Gas, NGLs, Wind, Solar, Hydro, LNG, Coal, PET, Polypropylene, Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA), Nuclear Power, Biofuels, Carbon Credits

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Western benzene prices have fallen from 1Q24 highs but remain at a sizable premium relative to Asia, suggesting Western non-integrated buyers still face stiff downstream product price competition from Asia.
Supply Chain/Commodities: We flag Aramco 1Q results, and one of the noted sustainable competitive advantages is downstream integration, which enables long-term placement of its upstream products into growth markets.
Energy/Upstream: Brent Crude oil has declined during the past two weeks relative to US natural gas prices, which we view as a headwind to global chemical prices and North American petrochemical production margins.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: We discuss Origin Materials and Danimer Scientific showcases at NPE, and flag EU carbon price expectations as some seek to move forward with the sale of allowances to fund green investment.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: We highlight Avient 1Q24 product demand by region while discussing the consensus view that Asia and Europe demand will improve in 2H24 while Americas demand remains supportive.