Market Indicators Suggest Lower US Spot Polyolefin Prices Ahead; Some Kinda Hurricane, Higher Oil Needed For Support

Polymer Market Trends: We flag price strength in US spot polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) relative to their 2019 and 2023 averages and why less downside risk faces US spot polyvinyl chloride (PVC) near term.
Chemical Market Trends: Global base and intermediate spot chemical prices were primarily unchanged WoW. We discuss the strength in global spot methanol prices WoW, which mostly rose with global natural gas costs.
Feedstock Market Trends: The price of Brent crude oil modestly declined last week while global natural gas prices moved higher, and these trends favor pulling Ex-US naphtha values lower relative to USGC ethane.
Agriculture Market Trends: Crop prices moved lower WoW, and US spot ammonia values fell WoW relative to overseas markets and natural gas costs. However, US ammonia margins are higher YoY and relative to Europe.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: US spot PE reflects a higher price relative to pre-COVID (2019) levels than PP and PVC.