Global Weekly Catalyst No. 261

General Thoughts: Global chemical feedstock costs trended lower on average relative to base chemical prices in 4Q24, and US commodity chemical equity values also fell as oversupply concerns remain elevated for 2025.
Feedstocks & Energy: Brent Crude Oil values have fallen relative to US natural gas values during the past three months, putting global petrochemical producers in a better general position to supply early 2025 demand.
Olefins: US TX-grid spot ethylene values increased ~19% in December, while Europe and Asia values slightly declined. In contrast, US spot polymer-grade propylene dropped compared to upticks in Europe and Asia.
Other Base Chemicals: European and US spot methanol prices moderated a bit at the close of 2024 relative to Asia after a period of substantial strength helped by Ex-US natural gas price support and production outages.
Agriculture: The recent weakness in soybean prices relative to corn is a plus for nitrogen-based fertilizer use, which is a plus for ammonia demand, and recent Ex-US natural gas price strength is a plus for Ex-US support.
Refining & Biofuels: US crude oil refinery margins entered 2025 at lower YoY levels. US ethanol prices have fallen relative to Brazil and China, and US margins are near breakeven levels before a potential 1Q25 rebound.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Base chemical prices see support relative to US producer equities and the oil-to-gas ratio.