Critical Minerals: A Global Chessboard

C-MACC Weekly Sustainability and Energy Transition Report

Critical Minerals: A Global Chessboard

• 1st Topic of the Week: The C-MACC critical mineral index rose in February, with copper among its strongest performers and lithium among its weakest – we discuss Rio Tinto, SQM, and our view of lithium oversupply.
• 2nd Topic of the Week: Despite the risk of government incentive cuts and withdrawn funding commitments, some green projects are moving ahead despite the strong likelihood of being abandoned if the risks materialize.
• Otherwise – We discuss EU circular material targets for 2030, falling EU carbon prices, Chinese wind turbine producers benefiting from a Western pullback, Sunnova risk, and US tariffs lifting power grid expansion costs.

Exhibit 1: Critical mineral producer equities with greater exposure to the energy transition have underperformed YTD.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Estimates – March 2025