Riders On The Storm: Scarcity Prices Power, Capital Enforces Discipline

C-MACC Weekly Sustainability and Energy Transition Report

Riders On The Storm: Scarcity Prices Power, Capital Enforces Discipline

• 1st Topic of the Week: Europe’s power transition masks rising volatility, constrained availability, and marginal gas pricing. Can grid build-out and storage scale fast enough to stabilize and curb electricity price inflation?
• 2nd Topic of the Week: Can low-carbon ammonia premiums and selective regional policies save projects as nitrogen prices pressure farmers, curb demand, and force ambitions to compete with grey economics in 2026?
• Otherwise, near-term volatility and return uncertainty mask repricing of reliability, deliverability, and carbon, steering capital toward disciplined assets, policy-durable regions, and scalable energy-transition pathways.

Exhibit 1: Electricity CPI stickiness reflects scarcity pricing rather than average fuel-cost normalization.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, January 2026