Global Chemical Update – Hits Different

The Weekly Catalyst

Global Chemical Update – Hits Different

Key Points:

• Global ammonia prices have risen QTD in 4Q23, led higher by supportive end-demand and increased Ex-US natural gas costs relative to US levels. We view North American producers in an enviable spot.
• European ethylene prices fell WoW to show a YTD low compared to US levels. We discuss rising ethylene production costs, shrinking polymer prices in Europe, and its likely profit drop into year-end.
• US propylene prices have increased notably since September due to domestic production outages and higher relative Ex-US feedstock costs, posing problems for North American non-integrated buyers.