Global Chemical Update – Back To A Holding Pattern?

The Weekly Catalyst

Global Chemical Update – Back To A Holding Pattern?

Key Points:

• Global ammonia prices, on average, have rebounded from mid-year lows amid rebounding demand and Ex-US production costs reverting upwards relative to US levels, creating a positive setting for 4Q23.
• An uptick in soy plantings and Ex-US production costs holding relative to US levels in 2024 could net to keep ammonia values near current levels as non-fertilizer long-term demand visibility increases.
• US natural gas and USGC ethane values fell more than Brent Crude and Ex-US naphtha values WoW – a relative plus for North American chemical producers, though it also suggests lower global prices.