How Special Are You? Relatively High Raw Material Prices, 2H24 Demand Uncertainties To Pose Challenges For Some

Companies Mentioned: H.B. Fuller, Dow, Enterprise Products, Invista, Inter Pipeline, Aditya Birla, Tianjin Bohua Chemical, Aramco, CNOOC, Shell, Avangrid, BASF, Enerflex, Phillips 66, Climeworks, ExxonMobil, BP, Summit Carbon Solutions, SLB, Trinseo, Westlake, Wintershall Dea, EnEarth, Amazon, Lindsay Corporation, H&M, Levi Strauss, Walgreens
Commodities Mentioned: Propylene, Polypropylene, Acrylonitrile, Propylene Oxide, Epoxies, Lithium, Helium, Natural Gas, Propane, Crude Oil, Hydrogen, Carbon

Key Findings

General Thoughts: US commodity chemical producers are well poised to have a better 1H24 than most expected in 4Q23, and strength looks likely to persist into July – US specialty chemical producer health is much more mixed.
Supply Chain/Commodities: US spot propylene values mostly held their ground in 2Q24 following their drop from 1Q24 despite continued weakness in Asia and Europe. We also discuss H.B. Fuller 2Q results and our takeaways.
Energy/Upstream: We highlight the US oil and gas production surge in 2023 and recent propane inventory movements. We also show Asia LPG relative to US LPG prices to highlight the significant domestic cost position.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: Part of the C-MACC team is attending the Hydrogen Technology Expo today, and we discuss North America and Europe being the major drivers of global CCUS growth forecasts through 2030.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: We note positive news suggesting increasing traffic ahead at the Panama Canal from recent lows, continued global freight rate strength, and a few chemical end-product seller earnings reports.