Is Green More Than A Dream? Remain Constructive On Ammonia, But Not At All Costs (& All Colors)!

Companies Mentioned: Air Products, Corteva, BASF, FMC, Nutrien, CF Industries, LSB Industries, Koch Fertilizer, Yara, Albemarle, ArcelorMittal, Sumitomo Bakelite, Energy Transfer, ADNOC, Linde, Air Liquide, Citroniq, FREYR Battery, Trina Solar
Commodities Mentioned: Grain, Oilseeds, Meat, Biofuels, Corn, Soybean, Nitrogen, Ammonia, Urea, Natural Gas, Resin, LNG, Hydrogen, Corn, Polypropylene, Bio-plastics, Ammonia, Sunflowers

Key Findings

General Thoughts: We are optimistic about ammonia market growth both from on-farm demand and new channels, such as fuels, though demand will unlikely come at any cost, likely limiting green production growth.
Supply Chain/Commodities: We highlight takeaways from the Corteva and Nutrien 3Q24 earnings reports and conference calls, unsurprisingly displaying a weak agriculture market setting – we remain constructive on 2025/26.
Energy/Upstream: We discuss the North American natural gas cost advantage benefiting its ammonia producers relative to Europe and Asia, and we also discuss Energy Transfer views on natural gas demand growth for power.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: We discuss the Air Products 3Q24 earnings report, including a few of its growth projects, and highlight the Citroniq bio-polypropylene development in Nebraska, a plus for corn demand.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: C-MACC Co-founders Cooley May and Graham Copley will be in New Orleans next week for meetings. Contact us to meet at the AEA conference or learn more about Issaquena Green Power.