Shifting Markets and Emerging Trends: Polymer Price Pressures, Energy Sector Adjustments & Mounting Trade Policy Concerns

Key Findings

General Thoughts: The recent movement in global petrochemical feedstocks, most notably crude oil and natural gas, suggests polyolefin weakness – it also indicates a difficult setting for recyclers and many PCR content targets.
Supply Chain/Commodities: European spot ethylene prices have moved lower with its relative global cost position in 4Q24, and we highlight the recent rebound in US spot ethylene (TX-grid) prices that could hit merchant buyers.
Energy/Upstream: We highlight Chevron capex budget cuts, BP potentially looking to sell a minority stake in some of its distribution assets, and companies gearing up in response to an oversupplied US oil-and-gas market setting.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: We discuss China’s dominant global position in clean technology manufacturing and discuss views in our sustainability research that see another problematic year for Plastics recycling in 2025.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: We highlight worsening sentiment among German automakers in November, adding to broadly weak regional economic indicators amid rising demand and global trade uncertainties.