Many Expect 2025 to Mirror 2024 – A Reassuring Outlook or a Warning to Brace for Impact?

Companies Mentioned: Braskem, LG Chem, OMV, Air Products, Linde, ADNOC, Borouge, Axalta, Sherwin-Williams, Nova Chemicals, Borealis, ONEOK, MPLX, Texas City Logistics, Tesla, Geely, Volkswagen, BP, Altilium, Phillips 66, Nvidia, Intel, Google
Commodities Mentioned: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Naphtha, Ethane, Ethylene, Propylene, Polyethylene (PE), Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC), Propane, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Low-Ethane Propane (LEP), Normal Butane (NC4), Carbon Dioxide, Electric Vehicles (EVs), Hydrogen

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Many global petrochemical companies expect a similar market setting in 2025 relative to 2024, despite a flatter global production cost curve, more China capacity, and trade/geopolitical issues posing risk.
Supply Chain/Commodities: We discuss 4Q24 earnings reports and 2025 outlooks from LG Chem, Borouge, and OMV to create a global view of takeaways following mostly North American chemical producer reports last week.
Energy/Upstream: We discuss the push to export more US LPG, flag the retaliatory measures from China toward US energy exports, and highlight movements in crude oil and ex-US naphtha relative to US natural gas and ethane.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: We highlight that European carbon prices have risen with its natural gas prices YTD and discuss the push among EU automakers to shift EU carbon policy from putting them at a disadvantage.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: We discuss the depreciation of the Chinese yuan relative to the US Dollar, and the potential for Chinese currency depreciation to offset US tariffs and jolt our chemical oversupply concerns.