Price Check: The Rally Pays Some and Prices Others Out

Key Findings

General Thoughts: North America’s methanol list premium masks negotiated discounts; Asia’s stronger spot market tests whether supply losses can support prices despite irregular demand from chemicals and fuels.
Supply Chain/Commodities: Europe’s cost squeeze shifts production toward stronger sites, but exporters face limited openings when incumbents retain customers, and demand weakens alongside local output.
Energy/Upstream: Recovering crude shipments could ease Brent before canceled LNG deliveries relieve Asian and European natural gas costs; oil-indexed contracts protect buyers only for cargoes that arrive.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: US ethanol margins recovered, but Iowa’s projected record crop has not lowered corn costs; basis rose US$0.14/bushel, offsetting falling futures as weather delayed deliveries.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: Diesel’s premium over gasoline signals product strain; US export controls could lower diesel prices but jeopardize profitable refinery runs and raise chemical delivery costs.